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Ten years following the UK embarked on a hurried public vote that polarised the country and unleashed turmoil, a warning comes from across the Irish Sea: it may occur once more.

Policymakers and citizens entered unwittingly Brexit and the similar might transpire with a referendum on a unified Ireland, initiating convulsions for which no one is equipped.

That conveys the caution from two respected commentators from each side of the Irish border who have collaborated to analyse the advantages and disadvantages of Northern Ireland leaving the UK to establish a fresh nation with the Republic of Ireland.

Political Institutions Not Ready

Fintan O’Toole and Sam McBride, have concluded that the government bodies in Ireland and Britain are extremely ill-prepared for a potentially contentious and seismic public vote.

"The lesson of Brexit hasn't been learned, which is that stuff can come out of the blue and can gain traction swiftly," the commentator stated. "I would suggest that the political architecture of our archipelago remains very unstable."

New Title Intends to Encourage Dialogue

The team have analysed the governmental, financial and cultural reasons for any structural alteration in a book, Examining Irish Unification, issued by the Dublin-based Royal Irish Academy.

They seek to stir debate on the topic with a series of lectures that will take them to Westminster in the coming weeks.

"What troubles everyone, or must worry every person, is the Brexit referendum of 2016," stated O’Toole.

"We do not want a referendum on a yes-no, ambiguous question whose consequences have remained undefined because then you find yourself with an highly divided society where the losing side are unable to accept losing and the those successful are uncertain quite what it is that they have gained."

Legal Framework

Under the peace accord, the Northern Ireland government minister should call a referendum on Irish unity if it is indicated that a most voters would approve.

Nationalist parties and other nationalists argue this point is looming, and a non-profit named pro-unification advocates has built momentum, but both governments and unionists downplay the possibility, making it uncertain if and when there will be a referendum.

Absence of Informed Dialogue

Partisan language for and against unity has masked the absence of substantive discussion, stated McBride.

"People tend to be supportive or opposed the concept but the detailed consideration which may surpass that to realise it is mostly absent. A great deal has gone on in universities but hardly any government figures or advocates want to engage even with the fundamentals. To illustrate, which kind of country should be desired? Unitary? Federal?"

Volume's Strategy

In the volume, no writer advocates unification or the existing arrangement. Both writes two pieces that seek impartiality in presenting the rationale for a unified Ireland and the rationale against, marshalling financial and social data, historical precedents and structural examples.

Arguments encompass flags and symbols, taxes, medical care, retirement funds, national debt responsibilities and the risk of pro-UK militancy. The aim is to inform and provoke conversation.

"There is significant curiosity in the issue but there hasn't quite been a discussion," said the writer. "Dialogue suggests an acknowledgement of the notion that there may exist valid points on each side."

Dual Referendums

A public vote in Northern Ireland would also trigger one in the Republic of Ireland, where voters say they prefer unity but reject paying higher taxes or implementing a different emblem to acknowledge pro-UK communities' British culture.

"Policymakers in Ireland should work out what the proposal from nationalist groups is aside from just saying: 'We seek a unified Ireland and we welcome you'," remarked the commentator.

Probability of Referendum

The journalist considers a referendum in his generation is probable and that it could happen suddenly. "It is possible just a reckless or a ill-advised or a negligent official who says: 'We should proceed and settle the matter.'"

Both nationalists and unionists have reasonable, valid arguments, he stated. "One side will succeed here and somebody will ultimately be defeated but all factions has got something to gain from the opposing arguments."

Call for More Extensive Debate

Westminster must join the discussion, said the analyst. "This involves Britain. It's a British question as much as it is an Irish issue."